Let us begin with Erdoğan’s remark following the 16 April 2017 referendum: ‘The horse has long since crossed Üsküdar’. It is true that the horse has long since crossed Üsküdar, but this time it is not the ruling party riding the horse, but the very will for change. Despite all the political manoeuvring at the highest levels and attempts to paralyse institutions, an undercurrent is growing within society. Because anger is no longer merely an emotional reaction; it is transforming into a collective will that is beginning to organise itself.

THERE ARE LIMITS TO THE GAME

The game set up by the ruling bloc may appear flawless from the outside. The list is longer, but includes: pragmatic processes conducted via Öcalan to divide the opposition; moves to paralyse the main opposition through internal disputes; and issuing warnings to all sections of society, as seen in the case of Deniz Göktaş...

Moreover, the global political climate—with the NATO summit to be held in Ankara and Trump’s rationalist foreign policy—appears to be providing the ruling bloc with the international legitimacy it seeks.

Yes, the political engineering has been running like clockwork so far. It is clear that they want to make people say “it’s all over” and drag society into an election without a clear goal or candidates. However, there is a very fundamental political reality that this plan overlooks: political engineering only works in manageable crises. When a regime is collapsing, no power can design politics.

TRUMP WON’T BE ENOUGH

Numerous polls have been published in recent days. These opinion polls suggest that Erdoğan has retained a certain degree of power and that the opposition has not reached the point it desires. Yet the situation on the ground is different. Nevertheless, we cannot ignore the data by claiming that “polls are of no importance”. On the contrary, the polls show that the ‘undecided’ and the ‘grey areas’ – so cherished by those in power – continue to exist. However, what the current polls fail to measure is the gap between the society’s superficial ‘silence’ and its ‘resolute determination’ in the face of the regime. People may not be telling interviewers their true opinions for a variety of reasons, but this does not mean they endorse the status quo.

The same applies to international relations. The image of legitimacy that Trump or the EU might confer upon Erdoğan may create some breathing space in macro-politics, but it does not alter the reality on the streets. The support coming from Washington is not enough to quell the demand for justice, the anger at poverty, the fire in the kitchen, or the call for justice. External support may buy the government time, but it cannot restore the consent of the grassroots.

ANGER HAS TURNED TO ACTION

The greatest misconception of those at the top of politics is the old cliché that the Turkish people merely want stability and are quick to forget. Yes, societies do not seek adventure; they may fear the unknown. But if the current situation itself has already become the greatest adventure, then change becomes the most rational refuge.

This is precisely why the manoeuvres of Kılıçdaroğlu’s team or the ‘but-ers’ have come to nothing. The issue is not about individuals, but the public’s will for change. And this will no longer remains merely at the stage of ‘anger’; it is creating its own defence mechanisms. Just as politics becomes confined to party headquarters, a new public sphere is being built in university lecture theatres, in workers’ resistance outside trade unions, and in the stance of intellectuals like Deniz Göktaş who refuse to back down. Horizontal organisations are springing up rapidly, bringing new actors into politics.

The Palace believes that by pursuing a process with Öcalan, it can peel the Kurdish electorate away from the bloc, and by dividing the CHP from within, it can leave the opposition without a candidate. Yet the alliance on the streets was forged not by protocols signed by leaders, but by the necessities of life, and it has long since passed the point where it can be easily dismantled.

THE TICKING CLOCK

On one side of the scales lies an elite alliance that has the full apparatus of the state, the judiciary, the security forces and global lobbies behind it, yet has lost the consent of the grassroots. On the other side are workers, women, young people victimised by the selection process, and millions seeking justice.

Yes, the government will use its power to the very end; it may even go so far as to bring moves against Özgür Özel to the table. However, none of this can halt the sociological erosion. Because sociology is always stronger than political engineering.

Facing the Palace this time is a mass consensus that has transcended individual figures, taken steps towards institutionalisation, and knows exactly what to do at the ballot box.

Both the maths and the sociology are clear: time is running out for the ruling party, and this time, those who have seized the initiative have long since crossed the finish line.

Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Erdoğan, Bahçeli, Kılıçdaroğlu yetmez: Atı alan çoktan Üsküdar’ı geçti, published in BirGün newspaper on July 6, 2026.