How the West’s complicity with Erdoğan is threatening Europe's security

Ahead of the NATO Summit to be held in Ankara on July 7–8, the Erdoğan regime has intensified its repression of society. Approximately 180 people, including academics, journalists, and lawyers, were arbitrarily detained and arrested on “terrorism charges” and on the grounds of a “potential to commit acts of violence.” However, in this scene—typical of a police state—those detained even include elderly members of the environmental organization TEMA, who were returning from a picnic and had no idea what was happening to them.

Video clips from the latest performance by Deniz Göktaş, a highly talented and regime-critical stand-up comedian, were rapidly shared online but were subsequently blocked on X at the request of the Erdoğan regime on the grounds of “protecting national security and public order.” Opposition media and prominent journalists in Türkiye are in an uproar because NATO has refused to grant them accreditation. NATO’s official justification: that it trusts the host country’s assessment. However, this justification is even more shameful than the method itself.

ERDOĞAN GETS THE JOB DONE!

For the West—especially the U.S., led by an erratic, rogue president—global security policy and arms trade with Türkiye seem more important than keeping Erdoğan’s crackdown on the opposition and civil society on the agenda.

The U.S. and the EU have long accepted that Tayyip Erdoğan is an autocrat. However, in their view, Erdoğan is not a “bad dictator of the East” like Putin, but rather “the West’s good, friendly autocrat.” In this turbulent crisis period, with conflicts raging from Ukraine to the Middle East, he is someone who must not be angered as a partner.

Now, all NATO heads of state will soon gather in Ankara to discuss global security and defense policy. As is well known, Donald Trump—who is not really a friend of NATO—stated in a previous announcement that he would not actually be attending the NATO summit, but would come specifically for “Erdoğan” (“I love him,” Donald Trump) and would bring “gifts” that would make him very “happy.” What is at stake here is the sale of jet engines worth approximately 700 million U.S. dollars for the new Kaan fighter jet. As is common for Trump, the congressianal review process - which is not so much important to him but required by the rules-will perhaps once again be disregarded. Additionally, the potential sale of U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets to Türkiye—which has been blocked by the U.S. due to Türkiye’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system as a NATO member—is also on the agenda. The defense industry in Türkiye is quite advanced. The opposition is merely observing this situation. The regime’s “Strong Türkiye” slogan seems to have pleased many segments of society.

THE WEST IS AWARE OF TÜRKİYE’S GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE

From Iran to Lebanon and Gaza, the conflicts in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and Trump—who is now an unreliable partner for Europe on defense issues—are all factors that makes specially the EU fully aware of Türkiye's geopolitical importance as a NATO member with the second-largest army. Under current conditions, this geopolitical importance appears to have increased significantly once again. The U.S., meanwhile, has long made public its colonialist view of the Middle East’s future.

According to a statement by U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye Tom Barrack, monarchies with strong leaders are far more promising for the Middle East region. He emphasized this in a speech he delivered at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in late April 2026. In his view, there is only one thing respected in this region, and that is power. Barrack’s slogan, inspired by the Roman military writer Vegetius’s saying “Si vis pacem, para bellum” (If you want peace, prepare for war), is “Peace through power.” According to the colonialist Barrack, Türkiye is a prime example of this, as Tayyip Erdoğan—in Barrack’s view—has brought stability and prosperity to the region through his strong and centralized leadership.

THE WEST IS NOT LEARNING FROM ITS MISTAKES

Thus, the West is once again demonstrating that it has not learned from its past mistakes. With its 20th-century Machiavellian realpolitik approach—which has failed time and again—the West has propped up ruthless dictators in the Middle East, such as Saddam Hussein and Hosni Mubarak. These dictators left behind immense chaos not only in their own countries but throughout the entire Middle East. By supporting a former jihadist like Ahmed al-Sharaa in Syria while simultaneously abandoning secular Syrian Kurds, the West once again found itself on the wrong side of history. To err is human. But to repeat the same mistakes over and over again is foolishness.

While the regime is lost in neo-Ottomanist fantasies, the possibility of provocative tensions arising in the future—alongside the “Blue Homeland” doctrine—with Greece in the Aegean, Southern Cyprus in the Mediterranean, and Israel in the Middle East cannot be ignored. Due to the Iranian threat, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan have been growing closer politically for some time. One reason for this is Israel’s growing influence in the Middle East. The rhetoric between Tel Aviv and Ankara is growing increasingly harsh and taking a dangerous turn.

Erdoğan, who makes no secret of his support for Hamas, will consider any means legitimate to divert attention from domestic political and economic issues and remain in power in the upcoming elections, in the face of the strong opposition formed by former CHP Chairman Özgür Özel, who was removed from office by the judiciary under Erdoğan's control.

THE WEST AND TÜRKİYE NEED EACH OTHER

From a realpolitik perspective, Türkiye is of great importance to the West, and the reverse is also true. Missiles launched from Iran in March were ultimately intercepted in Turkish airspace by NATO’s missile defense system. The deployment of the Italian SAMP/T air defense system in Konya as part of NATO’s defense efforts is no coincidence. The mutual dependence between Ankara and Brussels applies to both sides, and the West certainly has the means to increase pressure on Erdoğan.

Given the wave of repression against Turkish opposition figures ahead of the NATO Summit, it would be overly optimistic to expect the EU—which has always voiced “concern” in hushed tones about political developments in Ankara—to take a firm stance. However, a Western head of state could meet with opposition leader Özgür Özel, or visit the jailed former Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, or Selahattin Demirtaş, who has been imprisoned in violation of international law for nearly 10 years. This would send an important message. It would also serve as a significant sign that the West has not cast aside all its values for the sake of its own interests.

DOES MERZ HAVE AS MUCH COURAGE AS DENİZ GÖKTAŞ?

It is impossible to expect such humanitarian and solidarity gestures from a self-serving businessman like Donald Trump, but it is possible to expect them from a German chancellor who extols European values and principles at nearly every opportunity. However, it is hard to imagine whether Friedrich Merz possesses the same courage and heart as Deniz Göktaş, a “Stand Up” activist who defies an authoritarian regime. We will all have to wait and see.

Instead, while the Erdoğan regime dismantles democracy in full view of the global public, the deeply concerning internal political developments in Türkiye will likely be ignored once again by the West. Throughout this process, the West continues to repeat the mistakes it has made in the past—mistakes that everyone is well aware of. When will the world’s leaders learn that democracy and stability are not conflicting concepts, but inseparable issues?

In the short term, Türkiye’s democracy—already severely battered—along with the people who still believe in it, civil society, and Türkiye’s minorities will pay the price for the West’s indifference. In the long term, Europe’s security will also be affected.

In the face of this hypocrisy and deceit, it is no longer even possible to speak of a loss of prestige for the West—or even for Germany. This situation has long since materialized not only in Türkiye but also globally in the context of the Gaza War. The West’s values have ultimately failed, and because of Trump, there is no longer a unified West to speak of.

*Political scientist in Germany, Director of the Institute for Prevention the Radicalization