Inflation has reached the 32 per cent level as of June 2026, falling only 6 points below the 38 per cent level at the start of the three-year-old Şimşek programme. Food prices, meanwhile, are not declining despite the abundance of produce in the summer months. The failures of the programme, which has created no trust in the eyes of the public, and of its practitioners—which even they can no longer conceal—stand out in the open.

The re-escalating conflicts in the US–Iran war have also confronted the country's economy with a new energy and price shock. US-based investment bank Goldman Sachs stated that if the flow of oil in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted, Brent crude could rise above 120 dollars in the last quarter of the year. The bank expects Brent to average 80 dollars in the last quarter and 75 dollars in 2027 should tensions ease.

FUEL COSTS MULTIPLY

Re-escalating tensions in the US–Iran war are reflected as price hikes on fuel. Most recently, the price per litre of diesel rose by 1 lira 14 kuruş, and petrol prices by 1 lira 23 kuruş. With the increase, the litre price of diesel exceeded 74 liras in Istanbul, 75 liras in Ankara and İzmir, and 77 liras in some Eastern provinces. The litre price of diesel thus rose to 77.12 liras in Hakkari. Prior to the war, a litre of diesel was sold at approximately 60 liras.

Increases in fuel prices affect consumer inflation both directly and indirectly through the costs channel to many sectors, primarily transport services and food. The movement in fuel prices plays a significant role in terms of both the trajectory of inflation and price pressures via costs and expectations.

The most concrete example of the impact of fuel prices on inflation is seen in the transport of fresh vegetables and fruit. Logistics expenses, which are among the most important cost items in the chain extending from agricultural production to the table, are multiplying. The fuel cost alone for a lorry with a 20-tonne capacity transporting vegetables from Antalya to Istanbul has risen by approximately one-third compared to before the war.

Taking into account the transport made to fields, wholesale markets, and distribution points between Antalya and Istanbul, a route of approximately 800 kilometres is covered. Assuming that a lorry with a 20-tonne carrying capacity consumes an average of 40 litres of diesel per 100 kilometres, one-way transport consumes approximately 320 litres of diesel.

Prior to the war, while the litre price of diesel stood at the 60 liras level, the fuel cost for the same journey was calculated at 19,200 liras. Today, with the litre price of diesel rising to 76 liras, the fuel expense for the same trip has gone up to 24,320 liras. Thus, the additional cost stemming solely from diesel in a single trip has reached 5,120 liras. In other words, the fuel cost per kilogram in a lorry carrying 20 tonnes of vegetables has risen from 96 kuruş to 1 lira 22 kuruş.

Solely due to the diesel price hike, approximately 26 kuruş has been added to the cost of transporting every kilogram of vegetables just to Istanbul. In addition to this, increases in motorway and bridge tolls, vehicle maintenance expenses, tyre costs, driver wages, and financing expenses are also pushing transport costs upwards. For this reason, the pressure on the total cost incurred from the product leaving the producer until it reaches the consumer is steadily increasing.

OIL EFFECT WILL INCREASE

The share of fuel expenditure in the inflation basket is 3.21 per cent. According to the analysis conducted by Central Bank economists based on scenarios where the average Brent crude price varies between 70 and 90 dollars in the March 2026–February 2027 period, in a scenario where Brent crude averages 70 dollars, the increase in oil prices is reflected one-to-one in pump prices, and no sliding scale system is in place, annual inflation rises by 1.9 points at the end of 12 months. The sliding scale system, on the other hand, limits direct and indirect price increases, allowing this effect to recede to 0.6 points.

In the scenario where Brent crude averages 90 dollars, the impact on inflation is calculated at 5.36 points when no sliding scale system is applied, whereas this impact drops to 1.6 points when the sliding scale is applied. However, the government is also gradually phasing out the sliding scale system—implemented to limit the reflection of fuel price hikes onto the consumer—until 1 October. Thus, the reflection of oil price increases onto pump prices will become even more pronounced.

Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Tarladan sofraya kadar zam zinciri, published in BirGün newspaper on July 23, 2026.