Following the collapse of the agreement between Iran and the US, the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz is escalating. With Iran's retaliations against Gulf countries in response to US attacks, hot war has returned to the Middle East.

While the US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced the conclusion of the air strikes against Iran that lasted for 6 days, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliated in Gulf countries, as well as in Syria and Iraq.

PREPARATION FOR FORWARD OPERATIONS

In the latest attacks, the US military struck missile and drone bases, including those in regions close to Tehran, as well as coastal radar and air defence systems. Speaking to Reuters, three US officials stated that the latest waves of attacks against Iran were carried out to prepare for more complex operations planned for the future.

The IRGC announced that they struck US facilities in Syria, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain in response to the attacks.

SYRIA TARGETED FOR THE FIRST TIME

The IRGC announced that in retaliation for the US attacks, the headquarters of the US Special Operations Command in the Al-Tanf region of Syria and US aircraft stationed in Jordan were targeted. A power generation centre was also struck in Kuwait.

The IRGC further emphasised that Iran retains full control over the Strait of Hormuz, declaring that oil and natural gas exports through the strait will not be permitted as long as US attacks continue.

The US military had announced its withdrawal in February from the Al-Tanf base, located at the intersection of the Syrian, Jordanian, and Iraqi borders.

It was reported that 8 organization members were killed in a missile attack on the camp of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, an opponent of the Tehran administration, in the city of Sulaymaniyah, Iraq.

BRIDGES TARGETED

According to Iranian state television, 8 people lost their lives when two bridges in Bandar Khamir, in the Hormozgan province, and a railway junction station in Bandar Abbas were targeted. The airport in the city of Iranshahr, in the Sistan and Baluchestan province, was also the target of US attacks.

Following the US attacks in Iran, a call for conservation was issued to resolve the electricity problem in southern cities.

The Iranian Ministry of Health announced that 38 people were killed and more than 400 were injured in the US attacks in July.

In his statement on 14 July, US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with "striking its energy and oil infrastructure if it does not return to the negotiating table". On the same day, CENTCOM announced the resumption of the military blockade against Iranian ports.

Speaking to state television, the Spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, stated that if attacks against the country's infrastructure continue, "all infrastructure in the region will be targeted".

TEHRAN'S YEMEN MOVE

According to sources speaking to the Reuters agency, Iran instructed its Houthi allies in Yemen to be ready to close the oil shipment route in the Red Sea against a potential US attack on its own energy infrastructure.

A source close to the Houthis noted that preparations have been completed by deploying missiles and UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) in mountainous areas near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and they are merely awaiting the "order to start" the attack.

OPINION: THE HOT CONFLICT PHASE OF THE HYBRID WAR

Dr Ezgi Uzun-Teker, Lecturer at Yeditepe University:

The current tension erupted a few days ago over the transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz and the issue of who would control these routes. There was a clause on the Strait of Hormuz whose exact compromise remained ambiguous. According to Tehran's interpretation, Iran's coordinated control over Hormuz with Oman was to continue, but the operation of this was left to the subsequent decisions the parties would make among themselves.

This uncertainty also confused political actors in Iran. Not everyone in Iran supports this memorandum of understanding. Prior to the military activity, there was much debate within Iranian domestic politics regarding this Hormuz issue. In particular, the ultra-conservative faction wanted the sovereignty over Hormuz and the gains from the war to be clarified, and was clearly opposed to relinquishing the Hormuz card.

THE HORMUZ UNCERTAINTY

There is a route closer to the Sea of Oman that the US defines as a 'safe transit zone'. When a few ships attempted to pass through this route pointed out by the US, rather than the corridor designated by Iran, Iran played the missile card. With a few ships affected by this situation, the US resumed military attacks, arguing that the memorandum of understanding had been violated.

The open-endedness in the memorandum of understanding and the subsequent disputes brought us to today's point of hot conflict. It is important to emphasise that before the war, there was no 'Hormuz problem' in place, but today the war has reignited precisely over this knot.

WAR OF ATTRITION

It is difficult to predict the next few months because dynamics change very rapidly. In the current picture, the agreement has been shelved, and a return to a medium-intensity war has occurred. Although high-level military capacity has not been deployed yet, it is a process of only a few days. This situation could transform into a long-term and unresolved war of attrition where specific regions are bombed from time to time.

In its current strategy, the US is targeting strategic areas along the Hormuz coastline. However, the Chabahar region in Sistan and Baluchestan, on the coast of the Indian Ocean, has also begun to be hit for the first time. Chabahar, close to the Pakistani border, hosts a colossal port project in which India has major investments and which will connect to Central Asia and Russia. Striking this place contains both an economic blow and a strategic message due to the separatist Sunni Baluch movements in the region. The bombardment of this area, along with other coastal regions, could be a preparation for a potential land operation from the sea in the future.

THE FIELD AND THE TABLE GO PARALLEL

Iran utilizes the negotiating table and the field together. While targeting US assets in the Gulf, it continues to use Hormuz as a card. Tehran's general attitude is that it wants to receive the returns of what it has gained in the field from that table. Although the ultra-conservative Paydari Front, which is part of various power blocs, is pushing for revenge and the continuation of the war, the process is currently being driven by Arakchi, Kalibaf and the Revolutionary Guards, who are coordinating operations on the ground with those at the negotiating table.

The parties are moving with the same strategies; while Iran regionalises the war, the US is trying to bring Tehran to a position where it cannot claim rights over Hormuz. They are trying to reduce each other's cards until the next table. They will return to the table, have gathered their strength a little, and will start fighting again.

This is, in fact, a hybrid war whose beginning and end are unknown. Currently, we are in the hot conflict phase of this war. Perhaps in the future, we will enter another period of assassinations, or perhaps we will witness an uprising in Baluchestan. A return to the memorandum of understanding is difficult in the short term. This business will not end without a full-fledged peace covering the nuclear deal; at best, it will be a frozen conflict.

THE GULF AWAKES FROM A DREAM

In this succession of wars, the Gulf countries suffered a very serious loss of prestige. They were wealthy countries that had somehow integrated into the global economy, enjoyed good relations with the Transatlantic, attracted expats, established "smart cities," and presented forward-looking "visions." They were trying to reduce oil dependency, diversify their economies, and become countries where renewable energy and technology companies invest or attract tourists.

However, due to the US "security umbrella," they became the countries exposed to the full impact of the war. They were reminded that they are Middle Eastern countries. The US security umbrella here was already opened against Iran. Yet, this pattern of dependency applies to each country to varying degrees. They cannot develop their own defence industries; therefore, it is very difficult to terminate this relationship. However, as Tehran voiced previously and Oman expressed in recent days, the construction of a regional security mechanism that also encompasses Iran may come onto the agenda.

Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Sonsuz savaş döngüsü, published in BirGün newspaper on July 18, 2026.